Cargo containers are handled at MPC Hai Phong Port (Photo: VNA)
The positive trade performance during the first 10 months of 2026 has provided a fresh impetus for economic growth while highlighting the need to diversify markets, enhance competitiveness and proactively respond to trade defence cases.
Vietnam’s export and import turnover in October was estimated at 122.2 billion USD, up 47.6% year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Agency of Foreign Trade.
The figure for the first 10 months of the year reached 1.01 trillion USD, rising 32.3% from a year earlier and surpassing 1 trillion VND for the first time – setting a new record for the scale of Vietnam’s merchandise trade.
That includes about 499 billion USD in exports, up 27.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the full-year 2026 growth target of 15–16%.
Growth was driven by both the domestic sector and the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector. Processed goods remained the main driver of overseas shipments, accounting for 87.4% of the total, with positive results in major markets such as China, the US, the European Union, the Republic of Korea and ASEAN.
Vietnam recorded an estimated trade surplus of 6.8 billion USD in October, marking the second consecutive month of surplus and narrowing the cumulative trade deficit in the first 10 months to around 12.7 billion USD.
This result shows that import and export activities have maintained positive growth momentum, reaffirming the important role of goods trade in economic growth, said Nguyen Anh Son, Director General of the Agency of Foreign Trade.
Assoc. Prof. and Dr Dinh Trong Thinh, an economic expert, described the development as a major shift in Vietnam's exports and imports, reflecting the strong expansion in trade volumes. He attributed the achievement partly to export policies adopted by the Government, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and other ministries and sectors.
National Assembly deputy Tran Hoang Ngan of Ho Chi Minh City said Vietnam is well positioned to tap its potential and advantages from the 18 free trade agreements (FTAs) it has signed. Particularly, the country's growing international reputation and brand recognition are creating fresh momentum for its products to reach more global markets.
To sustain this momentum in the fourth quarter of 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Trade plans to continue boosting exports, diversifying markets and making better use of free trade agreements. It also intends to strengthen the early warning capacity for trade defence investigations, tariff barriers, environmental standards, traceability requirements and rules of origin.
In the longer term, the ministry is drafting a foreign trade strategy to 2030, with a vision to 2045, under which goods exports are targeted to grow by an average of 15–16% annually while imports by 12–13%, with a sustainable trade surplus.
The strategy also aims to raise the share of exports contributed by domestic enterprises to around 28–30% by 2030, while processed and refined products are expected to account for 89–90% of total exports.
Proactive trade defence
However, strong export growth also makes Vietnamese goods more vulnerable to trade defence investigations. By mid-September 2026, Vietnamese products had been subject to 327 investigations in 27 markets, including 27 new cases initiated in the first nine months of the year – more than the total recorded in all of 2025.
The Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam (TRAV) recently published a list of 50 categories of exported products at risk of trade defence investigations, particularly over suspected origin fraud or illegal transshipment.
For businesses heavily reliant on imported raw materials and semi-finished products from countries subject to trade defence measures, proving the origin of goods and the extent of processing has become increasingly important.
Companies must therefore maintain comprehensive and consistent records of raw material purchases, import documents, material consumption, production processes and costs, as well as factory capacity data, to enable them to provide and verify such information when requested by investigating authorities, TRAV noted.
They should also closely monitor export trends and trade policies in key markets to identify risks early, proactively develop contingency plans, and mitigate the risk of being investigated for the circumvention of trade remedy measures.
In addition, diversifying export markets and products will help reduce reliance on a limited number of destinations; however, this must be accompanied by an assessment of import regulations, the level of competition, and the potential for trade remedy actions in each specific market, according to TRAV.
VNA
